The United States is clamoring to sever all relations with China, as if without the United States, China could do nothing. So ridiculous! These words sound more like the groans of a terminally ill person struggling, or the dreams of a drunken man.bob综合国际体育官方入口
Firstly, international relations are not a "small circle" issue among children. From a common sense perspective, the United States cannot completely sever its relationship with China. Even if the United States really intends to do so, to what extent can the two countries decouple? The relationship between Russia and the United States is so bad that they have not severed all ties. In contrast, China and the United States are much closer.
From an economic perspective, the trade volume between China and the United States in 2022 was 759.427 billion US dollars, a record set during the ongoing trade war. Sino US trade saves an average of $850 per American household per year. In terms of personnel exchanges, before the outbreak of the epidemic, the number of personnel exchanges between China and the United States reached 5 million annually, with an average of 17000 people traveling between China and the United States every day. A flight takes off and lands every 17 minutes. Not to mention the large number of students and tourists traveling between China and the United States. Do you think all of this will disappear one day?
From another perspective, I would like to know more about how long it can last if the United States severs all ties with China? Under the impact of the COVID-19, the highly globalized industrial chain appears fragile. As the most populous country in the world, China has an extremely large domestic market and a complete industrial chain. China was the only country to achieve economic growth during the pandemic, which fully reflects the resilience and resilience of the Chinese economy.
For the United States, once it loses a major customer like China, it will be difficult to make up for it. For example, before the United States blacklisted Huawei China, Huawei placed nearly $12 billion in annual orders with American companies and is expected to purchase over $20 billion in goods from American companies by 2020, but all of this has been erased by restrictions imposed by the US government. Therefore, the US government's trade ban on Huawei has actually caused significant economic losses to American companies.
The current international trade system is no longer the pattern of the US Soviet Cold War, and it is unrealistic to deviate from the development of globalization. If the United States intends to completely sever its ties with China, it means it is gradually falling into a cocoon of ignorance. In short, decoupling from China is not the solution to the US dilemma. Cooperation between the two countries is the best path.
Perhaps this question should be said as follows: If China completely cuts off its ties with the United States, how long can Americans continue to do so?
Because, as analyzed by AXIOS, Trump's trade war with China is a failure in any aspect. A report from the Oxford Institute of Economics supports his analysis, with some excerpts as follows:
The United States benefits from trade and investment flows with China. The combination of bilateral trade, investment, and supply chain integration supports economic growth, consumer choices, and job creation. In 2019, exports to China provided 1.2 million jobs to the United States, and as of 2019, Chinese multinational corporations directly employed 197000 people in the United States.
In 2019, American companies invested $105 billion in China, and the profits generated from these investments and their contribution to the competitiveness of American companies supported the US economy through research and development, domestic investment, and dividend payments. It is expected that China will drive about one-third of global economic growth in the next decade, and maintaining access to the Chinese market is becoming increasingly important for American companies to succeed globally.
The trade war with China has damaged the US economy and failed to achieve the main policy goals outlined by the Trump administration. Not only did it not bring benefits to the economy, but it also reduced economic growth and employment in the United States, resulting in an estimated maximum loss of 245000 jobs. Despite the first phase of the trade agreement reached between the two countries in early 2020, tariff rates remain at their highest levels in decades.
Lowering tariffs may benefit the US economy and create job opportunities. Even a moderate reduction in tariffs may promote economic growth and stimulate employment growth. In our trade war downgrade scenario, the two governments are gradually reducing the average tariff rate to around 12% (currently around 19%), and the US economy will increase its real GDP by $160 billion over the next five years, adding 145000 jobs by 2025. Due to the increase in employment and income, as well as the decrease in prices, the income of each American household will increase by $460.
The escalating trade tensions and severe decoupling from China will further damage the US economy and reduce employment. According to our scenario of escalating and decoupling trade wars, the real GDP of the United States will decrease by $1.6 trillion over the next five years, with 732000 job losses in 2022 and 320000 job losses in 2025. In addition to significant short-term impacts on economic output, the long-term impact will permanently reduce GDP, reflecting a decline in economic productivity. By the end of 2025, American households will lose approximately $6400 in real income.
Last November, China announced a record $75.43 billion trade surplus, driven by an unexpected 21.1% year-on-year surge in exports. The fastest growing is exports to the United States, which increased by 46.1% to $51.98 billion, also setting a record
The Port of Los Angeles is the largest container cargo handling yard in the United States and the gateway to many Chinese goods. Here, containers carrying Chinese imported goods are stacked together like six story Lego blocks. Truck drivers crowded the parking lot, waiting for a few hours to pick up the goods and then transport them to various parts of the European continent.
October was the busiest month in the port's 114 year history, and traffic remained high. Gene Seroka, the executive director of the port, said that on December 1st, dock workers were busy unloading 19 ships, while under normal circumstances, 10 to 12 ships were unloaded daily. He said that there are still 12 ships waiting at the port, and on average, these ships waited for about 48 hours after their scheduled arrival.
Seroka said that we are going through a truly unprecedented period. You want to stuff 10 pounds of potatoes into a 5-pound bag. This order and replenishment scale is the largest we have ever seen, and it happens to be a holiday
In the first two months of this year, China US trade increased by 81.3% year-on-year, reaching 109.8 billion US dollars, which is the fastest growing among all regions, including the European Union and ASEAN. During this period, China's exports to the United States increased by 87.3%, second only to New Zealand, and New Zealand's imports from China increased by 89.2%.
Tian Yun6868捕鱼, Vice President of the Beijing Economic Operations Association and former economist at the National Economic Planning Agency, stated that the high growth rate reflects the rapid growth in demand after the US economic recovery and stimulus policies.
During the embargo period dominated by the United States, China has survived for more than 30 years. It has trade relations with only a few countries, and none of them is a Economic power. Today, China has political and economic connections with countries around the world. Some people estimate that China produces 40% of the total global consumption of goods. The latest final data on China's exports shows that exports to the United States only account for 19%. In addition, please remember that China also provides most of the components and raw materials to the countries that manufacture the final product.
More importantly, since most consumer goods come from China, and many of the components used for final product assembly also come from China, can the United States survive cutting off imports? Many economic sectors will collapse and need to be rebuilt from scratch. The main and most obvious will be wholesalers and retailers. Many well-known brands, such as Wal Mart and Target, as well as the whole wholesale and supply chain, will disappear or regenerate for those enterprises with sufficient financial resources.
American consumers will see political inflation leading to soaring prices. Many people will directly fall into poverty. After all, when the main supply of a consumer economy is cut off and there are often no alternative sources for a long period of time, this is the expected result. Some companies, such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Boeing, generate 30% or more of their revenue from China. Think about how they will weather such a crisis safely.申博官网
So, for everyone's happiness, please let go of these childish ideas. We all benefit from cooperation rather than confrontation.
In the past, 70% of goods in international trade were manufactured goods, and now 70% are semi-finished products. Many people believe that this makes China, which is dominated by the manufacturing industry, more susceptible to the impact of raw materials and market cuts. But the fact is exactly the opposite.
The first mistake was overestimating the reliability of the US dollar. People use dollars in the international market because they can purchase goods in dollars. If China, as an important participant in international trade, no longer uses the US dollar for settlement, then people will undoubtedly increase their demand for the euro and reduce their demand for the US dollar. The significant depreciation of the US dollar will ignite the debt problem of the US government and trigger a fiscal crisis. When everyone is rushing to sell dollar denominated assets, it will be the end of the US economy. The key to the problem lies in the US fiscal dependence on debt.
The second mistake is overestimating the affordability of American citizens. Due to the loss of the US market, Chinese people will lose some of their jobs. However, most Chinese people can return to labor-intensive industries that are about to disappear, and household savings will ensure a short-term quality of life. For heavily indebted American families, this will be a disaster. In this epidemic, even though the government paid people's living bills, there was still a huge riot in the United States.www.zauwo.com
The third mistake is underestimating China's potential. Comparing the economic growth rates of the two countries, it can be found that China still has a lot of room for growth, while the United States does not. The contribution rate of China's economic growth to world economic growth exceeds one-third, and may reach over half this year. As an investor, the Chinese market is far more attractive than the United States. Never test the loyalty of capital. The capital trapped in developed markets will lead to increasingly intensified conflicts between the United States and its allies.
The fourth mistake is underestimating the importance of China in the world economy. More semi-finished product trade will actually help China dominate the world economy. The key to the problem lies in scale. For upstream companies, China is the decisive buyer due to its market size. For downstream enterprises, China is also the decisive seller due to its production scale. That's why when China stopped its economic activities due to the epidemic, countries that were not affected by the epidemic also began to suspend work. Upstream enterprises shut down due to a lack of orders, while downstream enterprises shut down due to insufficient supply. The United States cannot bypass China to obtain enough goods.
Therefore, the biggest mistake is to believe that US capital will allow the US to decouple from China.
This may harm the Chinese economy, but in the long run, the harm to the US economy will be multiple.
Firstly, China is the world's largest market. China is the world's largest consumer of entertainment, automobiles, electronics, appliances, services, food, energy, technology, infrastructure, finance, and more! Removing China from the US economy means that China will retaliate and drive American companies out of China. You see, the growth of GDP in the United States is largely due to the growth of the stock market. When a large portion of revenue from Forbes 100 companies disappears overnight, it will mean an immediate recession!
Secondly, the United States will lose its international market share.
The growth of American companies over the past 30 years is mainly attributed to the benefits brought by China's manufacturing industry. American companies have a huge business presence in China, while Chinese companies do not have the same footprint in the United States. They only produce products and then label them with American brands. This can represent a nearly 9-fold markup. Imagine if the United States withdrew from China and left their technology to the Chinese people. They can produce identical products. They can earn huge profits by establishing their own brand. They will surpass the United States internationally.
Thirdly, China has already achieved victory in terms of market share in emerging economies.
If you have been to countries in Africa or Southeast Asia, you will find that Chinese brands dominate their consumer economy. American companies may have a much larger share in Wet market such as Europe and Japan. But this situation will not continue because once China has sufficient market share in these emerging markets, they will enter Europe and Japan. This has already happened in Latin America.
So, the only solution is: learn to cooperate with Chinese people and find your own niche! Obviously, no country can do everything well. For example, Luxembourg's dental equipment is world-renowned. If you want to maintain competitiveness, then specialize and do your best.